NWS Forecaster Discussion
BOX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA.
000
FXUS61 KBOX 040140
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
940 PM EDT Mon Oct 3 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will linger to our south for the first half of the
week, which will keep onshore flow and perhaps some showers re-
developing by tomorrow and/or Wednesday with the best chance
across the southern half of our region. Sunshine and warmer
temperatures return for the latter half of the work week before
it turns unseasonably chilly heading into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
9:45 PM Update...
With the exception of Martha`s Vineyard and Block Island, all
returns on radar continue to evaporate before hitting the ground
at this hour. Otherwise, the forecast remains largely on track.
730 pm update...
Neighboring KOKX shows a band of light rain moving northwest
through southern New England, but drier air near the surface is
allowing for that precipitation to evaporate. Area ASOS have not
reported anything more than sprinkles. For this update only
minor adjustments were made to keep the forecast in line with
the current observations. Otherwise the forecast is on track,
please view the previous discussion below.
================================================================
330 pm update...
A blocking pattern continues to suppress the movement of an area
of low-pressure situated off the mid-Atlantic coast. As a
result, southern New England will continue to see gusty
northeast winds and cloudy skies this evening and tonight. Low
temperatures will vary quite a bit this evening, with areas to
the southeast experiencing milder temperatures in the upper 40s
to low 50s. This will be in large part due to mechanical mixing
from the gradient wind and low-level cloud cover limiting any
radiational cooling.
Across the interior, and especially northwestern MA, less cloud
cover and a decoupling boundary layer will allow temperatures to
fall into the mid to upper 30s. Can`t rule out some patchy frost
development by tomorrow morning, but the current low temperature
forecast is not low enough to warrant any frost headlines.
After midnight, we`ll begin to see showers associated with the
low to our south spread into southern New England from southeast
to northwest. Greatest chances for precip will be over the
south coast, Cape and Islands. Gusty northeast winds of 20 knots
will continue near the coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Tomorrow and tomorrow night
Area of low pressure to the south remains nearly stationary off
the east coast through tomorrow night. This will support the
continuation of gusty northeast winds, overcast skies and cool
temperatures. Highs top out in the mid to upper 50s tomorrow.
Rain chances will increase during the day across the
southeastern areas where a steady light rain is expected.
Tomorrow night will feature more of the same. However,
temperatures will not be as cool across the interior with lows
only bottoming out in the mid to upper 40s. Coastal areas remain
a bit more mild once again with lows in the low to mid 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Highlights...
* Rain likely, especially south and east, on Wednesday. Then dry
into early next week.
* Warming into the 70s Thursday and Friday, then much colder for the
weekend.
Details...
Wednesday and Wednesday night...
One more day of Ian`s remnant moisture and low pressure lingering
well to our south. Rain is likely across Rhode Island and southeast
Massachusetts, with a chance of rain across northern Connecticut and
the remainder of Massachusetts. For a period, in the late afternoon
and evening, instability may be enough to cause an isolated
thunderstorm over Martha`s Vineyard, Nantucket, and the southern
coastal waters. Still some gusty northeast winds along the coast.
It will be on the chilly side, with highs in the upper 50s and lower
60s.
Thursday...
The remnant low finally moves east and way out to sea and is
replaced by a weak ridge of high pressure over our region. Winds
will become lighter and skies will become sunny. Expecting
temperatures to warm up to the upper 60s and lower 70s. Enjoy.
Friday and Friday night...
Sunny skies to start the day, along with southwest winds, will be
the recipe for warm conditions. Expecting highs from 70 to 75
degrees - a stellar day!
A strong cold front will be racing across the region by late in the
day. Clouds will increase a bit and while it could produce an
isolated shower, its passage should mainly be dry. Temperatures at
850 mb plunge from +9.5C in the morning to -3.5C late Friday night.
The air is dry by the time the cold air is in place, so not thinking
there will be any flurries or snow shower activity in the slopes of
the Berkshires. Overnight lows fall to the 40s with upper 30s in
northwest MA.
Saturday through Monday...
With high pressure slowly building in from the upper Midwest and
Ohio Valley, Saturday through Monday will be dry with mainly sunny
skies during the day. A weak short-wave trough passes through
northern New England Saturday night/early Sunday. This could
increase some high cloudiness across northern MA for a time.
This weekend will be on the crisp side. On Saturday, WNW winds gusts
to 15-25 mph and highs will only be in the 50s, except upper 40s
highest terrain of northwest MA and lower 60s Cape and Islands. Cold
Saturday night with lows in the 30s and a chance of some frost if
winds can settle down. A little milder but still below normal on
Sunday, with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Slight moderation
Monday to 60-65 for highs.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight...High Confidence.
MVFR cigs overspread southeastern MA and RI overnight. BOS/ORH
at a lower risk for MVFR with cloud bases marginal around
030-035 feet. VFR across across to the north and west including
BAF/BED/BDL. Northeast winds will be lighter across the
interior in the 5 to 10 knot range. Closer to the coast NE winds
of 10 knots with gusts to 20 knots or higher will be common.
Tuesday...Moderate confidence.
MVFR cigs persist across the southeastern areas with rain
showers moving into southern New England from southeast to
northwest beginning Tuesday morning. May see cigs deteriorate to
IFR over the islands by Tuesday afternoon. VFR more likely
across the interior/northwestern areas. Gusty northeast winds
continue.
Tuesday night...Moderate confidence
MVFR cigs spread further inland Tuesday night. Gutsy northeast
winds with showers continuing over the southeastern areas.
KBOS Terminal...High Confidence in TAF. SCT to occasional BKN
cigs around 3k ft possible this afternoon and tonight.
KBDL Terminal...High Confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...
Thursday: VFR. Breezy.
Thursday Night through Friday: VFR.
Friday Night through Saturday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Sunday: Breezy.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight through Tomorrow Night...High Confidence.
The overall pattern with high pressure to our north and low pres to
the south will continue with strong pressure gradient over the
waters. Strongest winds tonight will once again be over the south
coastal waters where occasional gale force gusts are expected to
continue. Winds may diminish a bit tonight, but the low level jet
increases again on Tue from the south which will bring another
period of gales to the southern waters. Across NE MA waters, winds
will gradually diminish below SCA later tonight. Gale force winds
begin to diminish tomorrow night into Wednesday.
Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...
Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt.
Friday Night through Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ231>237-250-
251-254.
Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ255-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RM/GAF
NEAR TERM...Gaucher/RM/KS
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...RM/GAF
MARINE...RM/GAF