NWS Forecaster Discussion
OKX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY.
059
FXUS61 KOKX 160910
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
510 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.
A wind advisory and flood watch remain in effect for portions
of the tri-state area.
A Gale Warning remains in effect for all waters.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A strong frontal system brings periods of rain and the
potential for thunderstorms to the region today into tonight.
Urban and poor drainage flooding is possible. Wind gusts 40 to
50 mph are also expected.
2) Isolated minor coastal flooding and beach erosion possible
today and into tonight.
3) A drier and colder airmass settles into the area for Tuesday
through Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
A strong frontal system impacts the region today into tonight
with strong and gusty southerly winds, moderate to locally heavy
rainfall, and the potential for gusty thunderstorms, especially
across inland areas.
A deep 985mb low tracks through the Great Lakes region today and
into eastern Canada tonight, bringing a warm front across the
area this morning, followed by a strong cold front tonight.
Scattered showers and possibly an isolated thunder move through
the area ahead of the warm front this morning. A strong and
gusty southerly flow then develops in the warm sector, and
showers become more scattered. A low level jet of 50-60 kt moves
into the region, and these higher winds may mix to the surface,
with the potential of gusts near or just over 40 kt, and a wind
advisory remains in effect for southern Connecticut, Long
Island, New York City, metro New Jersey, and southern
Westchester county this afternoon into late tonight. The low
level jet increases late afternoon into tonight ahead of an
approaching cold front, with wind of 70-90 kt at 3K ft into
early this evening. A surface based inversion slowly weakens
this evening and these higher winds may mix to the surface with
any stronger convection that develops ahead of the cold front.
The Storm Prediction Center keeps the area remains in a general
thunderstorm risk, with the slight risk of severe thunderstorms
just to the west, through western New Jersey, and a marginal
risk across eastern New Jersey into Nassau county, and the Lower
Hudson Valley. Any strong storms could produce severe wind
gusts to around 50kt this evening in the marginal risk area,
and maintained the gusty enhanced wording inland areas. While
storms will be moving rather quickly moderate to locally heavy
rainfall is possible in a short time, and minor urban and poor
drainage flooding may result, and the entire area is in a
marginal risk for excessive rainfall. Rainfall will generally be
3/4 to 1 1/2 inches, with higher amounts of 2 to locally 2.5
inches across southern CT. Given this higher rainfall potential
across southern Connecticut have maintained the Flood Watch with
a localized flash flood threat. Fast responding smaller rivers
and stream may approach or exceed bankfull, however the larger
and more widespread riverine flood threat is not expected.
.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Isolated minor coastal flooding and beach erosion remain
possible with a strong frontal system given the
expected magnitude of southerly flow and associated wave
action.
The combination of low astronomical tides and 1/2 to 1 foot of
surge may produce isolated minor coastal flooding at the
vulnerable locations of the south shore back Bays of Nassau and
western Great South Bay with the high tide cycles this morning
and this evening. Only the upper end of the latest guidance
(90th percentile of Stevens and SNAP- Ex) is showing this
isolated minor threat.
.KEY MESSAGE 3...
High pressure gradually builds in Tuesday, settles over the
region Wednesday, then departs Thursday. The high will bring in
a colder and drier airmass behind the frontal system of Monday.
Temperatures Tuesday through Wednesday night will run about 10
degrees below normal for mid-March. Gusty conditions likely
continue on Tuesday, and will produce wind chill values in the
30s for much of the day. Warmer temperatures return for the end
of the week.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
***High Impact Aviation Weather Event through Tonight***
A strong frontal system impacts the terminals through tonight.
Conditions have lowered to IFR for much of the terminals as
showers move through ahead of a warm front which lifts north of
the area around 12Z. LIFR conditions should then develop
through the morning and will likely continue through the
evening. VLIFR conditions are also possible near the coast with
a chance of 1/4SM visibilities, especially in the afternoon/evening.
Periods of showers are expected on today with locally heavy
downpours possible at times. Isolated thunderstorms are also
possible 06-15z, but have been left out of forecast due to low
confidence at this time. The probability of a thunderstorm
increases in the afternoon and evening and is included in a
PROB30 for all terminals after 18Z.
ESE-SE winds gradually increase into the morning, becoming
10-15 kt with gusts 20-30 kt, strongest near the coast. The flow
will veer to the S into the afternoon with winds increasing
further, becoming 15-20 kt with gusts 25-35 kt. The strongest
winds will likely end up at coastal terminals. Gusts 35-40 kt
expected to develop toward 21Z, especially close to the coast. A
few higher gusts are possible. Winds will then become W with
the cold frontal passage from about 03Z to 07Z. Winds
immediately behind the cold front will also feature G30-40 kt,
before gradually falling off.
LLWS with winds at 2kft 50-60 kt through today. The strongest
LLWS appears likely this afternoon and evening when winds at
2kft may be 60-70 kt, especially at coastal terminals.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments likely for timing of lowering ceilings, visibilities, and
showers through this evening.
Isolated thunderstorms possible after 06z. Adjustments possible to
timing of PROB30 for TSRA after 18z.
1/4SM fog possible, especially at KJFK in the afternoon and
evening.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday Night: IFR/LIFR with showers, possibly heavy at times.
Thunderstorms also possible. Becoming VFR following the cold frontal
passage from about 03Z to 07Z. S winds 15-25 kt with gusts 25-40 kt,
highest at the coast. Peak gusts up to 45 kt possible along the
coast in the evening. LLWS. Winds decrease slightly and become
westerly late, gusts 25-35 kt. Showers taper off overnight with
improving conditions.
Tuesday: Becoming VFR. W gusts 25-30 kt.
Wednesday-Friday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
A strong frontal system will bring an increasing, and gusty,
southerly flow to the forecast waters today into tonight. While
Small craft conditions continue on the waters into early this
morning, southerly gusts are expected to reach gales force this
morning into early this afternoon. A Gale Warning is now in
effect for all the waters today into tonight.
Thunderstorms are possible this morning, and more likely ahead
of a strong cold front late this afternoon into this evening.
The thunderstorms could bring higher wind gust to the water
surface with the potential of local gusts to 50 kt.
Westerly winds behind the cold front passage will begin to
diminish especially by late tonight, with gusts on the non-ocean
waters potentially lowering to SCA levels. Ocean gusts,
especially on the eastern waters fall below gale force by
Tuesday morning. Small craft conditions likely linger on all
waters through Tuesday with 25 kt gusts, but could potentially
continue into Wednesday on the ocean waters with lingering 5ft
seas. Sub-SCA conditions then expected thereafter.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for CTZ005>012.
Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Tuesday for
CTZ005>012.
NY...Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Tuesday for
NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Tuesday for
NJZ006-104-106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-
345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MET
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...MET