NWS Forecaster Discussion
OKX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY.
786
FXUS61 KOKX 151814
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
214 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm frontal boundary moves in from the south this evening and
stalls within the area. Associated weak low pressure moves
across late tonight into early Friday. Thereafter a surface
trough moves across Friday and another one moves across
Saturday. A cold front approaches Saturday afternoon and moves
across Saturday night. High pressure will gradually return early
next week as low pressure lingers just east of New England. A
frontal system may approach during the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Fog has dissipated, still lingering over parts of the ocean
waters. Shower coverage has been limited to mostly isolated to
widely scattered coverage. Thunderstorms have been isolated at
most. For most locations, a cloudy mainly dry day expected for
the rest of the afternoon.
For tonight, with any instability decreasing with the loss of
diurnal heating, shower and thunderstorm coverage is expected to
considerably decrease with the absence of any significant
synoptic lift.
Winds become light and variable direction. Another night of low
clouds and fog is expected across the area. Will go with
relatively warmer guidance for low temperatures tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Unsettled weather continues through the short term period.
Brief zonal flow aloft follows the departing trough, but another
upper level low approaches. The associated surface low will
impact the area through Saturday night. There is quite a bit of
uncertainty as far as PoPs and thunder during this period. The
most uncertainty is with Friday morning and afternoon as
guidance continues to show a decaying line of showers and
thunderstorms approaching tonight into Friday morning. If this
activity does make it, the best chances will be for northeast NJ
and the Lower Hudson Valley. There may be additional chances
for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, but confidence
in this is decreasing as lift looks weak.
The upper level low gets closer on Saturday and moves overhead
Saturday night. A cold front also moves through Saturday night.
While conditions may become more conducive to showers and
thunderstorms on Saturday there is still uncertainty and the
mesoscale setup will become better resolved over the next few days,
which should help give more confidence on the evolution of potential
convection. If the current timing holds, any showers/thunderstorms
will likely be out of the area or dissipate by around midnight.
Warmer temps are expected on Friday and Saturday, highs in the
70s and potentially lower 80s for northeast NJ on Saturday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Points:
* Temperatures will mainly run above normal through the weekend
before trending closer to normal early next week.
A blocky synoptic pattern will continue through the middle of
next week.
The system that impacts the area Friday and Saturday will push
east of the area on Sunday and then remain near or just off the
New England coast early next week. Lingering cyclonic flow aloft
Sunday may be enough to produce a diurnally driven isolated
shower well inland in the afternoon. Upper ridging will build
just to our west early next week with another trough amplifying
over the western states. The proximity of the ridging and upper
low just offshore should keep conditions dry Monday into
Tuesday. The NBM indicates an increase in precip probabilities
on Wednesday which may be overdone given the nearby ridging
which may take some time to break down. Will indicate a low
probability for now with potential of another frontal system
attempting to approach mid next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure weakens and passes near or just south of Long
Island this evening. Another weak low approaches late Friday
morning.
Generally IFR across the terminals with a chance of MVFR into
late this afternoon at the NYC metro terminals and KSWF. LIFR
possible east of the NYC terminals with a chance of IFR.
Conditions lower this evening across the region with LIFR, and
at times late tonight VLIFR. Conditions will be improving to
MVFR Friday morning. There will be a chance of showers with
thunderstorms Friday afternoon. Low confidence forecast with
timing and conditions for tonight.
Winds light E/SE become light and variable throughout this
evening. A light south flow develops Friday morning.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments expected for changing flight categories throughout
the TAF period.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday afternoon: MVFR with showers and a slight chance of
tstms.
Saturday: MVFR. possibly IFR in the morning, becoming VFR in the
afternoon with showers likely, and a chance of thunderstorms
with MVFR.
Sunday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers inland. W winds
G20-25kt.
Monday - Tuesday: VFR. Monday NW winds G20-25kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
A Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect for the ocean waters
until 4PM EDT. Dense fog will likely lower visibilities to less
than 1 NM. Visibilities have improved but the fog has been
slower to decrease across the ocean. Another round of fog is
expected tonight into early Friday which could be dense.
The Small Craft Advisory continues across the ocean waters with
Sandy Hook to Fire Island Inlet ocean segment SCA ending at 4
PM and the rest of the ocean waters SCA expires at 6 PM.
Conditions then remain below SCA levels through next Monday with a
relatively weak pressure gradient over the waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Additional heavy downpours expected with any thunderstorms that
develop today. Localized minor flooding possible with not much
steering flow. This activity is not expected to reach flash
flooding levels and should diminish as we head towards sunrise.
Shower and thunderstorm coverage will likely increase this
afternoon and heavier downpours are possible again. At this
time, flash flooding is not expected with that activity either.
There are currently no hydrologic concerns Friday through early
next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350-
353.
Dense Fog Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ350-
353-355.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JM
NEAR TERM...JM/JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JM/DS/JT
HYDROLOGY...DS/JT