NWS Forecaster Discussion
OKX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY.
000 FXUS61 KOKX 291802 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 102 PM EST Sun Jan 29 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Weak low pressure moves across upstate New York into northern New England today and into the Canadian Maritimes tonight while a trailing stationary front remains to the north. The front will move into the area Monday night and than pass to the southeast on Tuesday as high pressure builds in for mid week. An arctic cold front then passes through on Friday followed by high pressure building in through Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Probabilities still look on track, updated for current winds, temperatures and dew points. PoPs based mainly on the latest CAMs, which are still showing the precipitation weakening as the area moves into the region, and maintained the slight chances. Showers should be over by late evening as winds veer a little more westerly and diminish, but skies should remain mostly cloudy. Lows tonight range from the lower 40s in NYC to the lower 30s in outlying areas. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Another mild day expected on Mon, with highs again from the upper 40s to mid 50s, as the front to the north fails to move through given parallel flow aloft and lack of a push by any sfc high pressure. That should change beginning Mon night as a strong high starts to build E into the OH Valley, and then more squarely into the area on Tue. A few showers should accompany the front, by late Mon afternoon NW of NYC and Mon evening throughout. A few showers may still linger across ern Long Island and SE CT late Mon night. Some snow may mix in before showers end mainly inland and out east as colder air filters in. Low temps Mon night will range from the mid 30s in/around NYC to the upper 20s/lower 30s elsewhere. Dry/cooler wx expected on Tue, with highs from the upper 30s well inland NW of NYC, to the lower/mid 40s elsewhere. The real push of colder air should begin Tue night, with temps falling into the teens inland and in the Pine Barrens region of Long Island, and into the 20s for NYC and surrounding suburbs, western Long Island, and coastal SW CT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Zonal flow aloft expected for Wednesday and Thursday, with weak high pressure building from the west on Wednesday and weakening on Thursday. Deterministic global models (GFS/ECMWF/CMC) now all agree that both days remain dry, although their respective ensemble means clip us with precip during this period. Will remove all chances of precip, which is what NBM now features. For Friday, the polar vortex drops SE through Quebec, helping send An arctic cold front through the area during the daytime. Models showing a lack of moisture with its passage, so will continue with a dry forecast. Depending on the timing of the passage, high temperatures could possibly occur early in the day with afternoon temps falling through the 20s. Winds will increase behind the front, and nighttime wind chills fall to zero to 15 below zero. It remains cold on Saturday with high pressure building in from the NW. Highs in the 20s, and this may eventually need to be adjusted downward as time approaches. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Weak high pressure gives way to an approaching cold front tonight into Monday. VFR through early evening, then cigs lowering to MVFR. A few showers will be possible late this afternoon into the evening, but chances are not high enough to include in TAFs. The only exception will be at KSWF where a TEMPO remains for a -SHRA has Improvement back to VFR anticipated late tonight. Low confidence of any MVFR cigs on Monday. S-SW winds this afternoon will generally be between 8-14kt. An occasional gusts between 15-20kt can not be ruled out, and have left out of the TAF. LLWS also anticipated for mainly the coastal terminals for a few hours this afternoon. SW winds diminish tonight and remain fairly light through the remainder of the TAF period. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Can not rule out a few occasional gusts this afternoon. Timing of MVFR tonight, both onset and end, may be off by a couple of hours, and potentially might not even occur. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .Monday...VFR. Chance of MVFR and showers mainly afternoon and night. .Tuesday through Friday...Mainly VFR. Friday afternoon, NW winds increase to 15-20G30kt. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Winds and gusts have been lower than forecast and in a relatively light southerly flow, with a low level inversion in place, gusts will remain minimal into tonight. Seas may still build to 5 feet in the southerly flow, and will keep the SCA in effect for the seas. Updated the Marine Weather W maintain . Updated the marine weather message. Conds begin to improve W of Fire Island Inlet by early this evening as seas fall below 5 ft, and then gradually improve E of there through the rest of tonight. A general weak pressure gradient through the middle of next week keeps all waters below SCA criteria through at least Wednesday. For Thu, there is a chance that wind gusts on the ocean waters could reach 25 kt. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts are expected through early next week. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ350. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for ANZ353. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/BG NEAR TERM...MET SHORT TERM...BG LONG TERM...JC AVIATION...BC MARINE...JC/MET HYDROLOGY...JC/BG