NWS Forecaster Discussion
OKX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY.
000
FXUS61 KOKX 291802
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
102 PM EST Sun Jan 29 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure moves across upstate New York into northern
New England today and into the Canadian Maritimes tonight while
a trailing stationary front remains to the north. The front
will move into the area Monday night and than pass to the
southeast on Tuesday as high pressure builds in for mid week. An
arctic cold front then passes through on Friday followed by
high pressure building in through Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Probabilities still look on track, updated for current winds,
temperatures and dew points. PoPs based mainly on the latest
CAMs, which are still showing the precipitation weakening as the
area moves into the region, and maintained the slight chances.
Showers should be over by late evening as winds veer a little
more westerly and diminish, but skies should remain mostly
cloudy. Lows tonight range from the lower 40s in NYC to the
lower 30s in outlying areas.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Another mild day expected on Mon, with highs again from the
upper 40s to mid 50s, as the front to the north fails to move
through given parallel flow aloft and lack of a push by any sfc
high pressure. That should change beginning Mon night as a
strong high starts to build E into the OH Valley, and then more
squarely into the area on Tue. A few showers should accompany
the front, by late Mon afternoon NW of NYC and Mon evening
throughout. A few showers may still linger across ern Long
Island and SE CT late Mon night. Some snow may mix in before
showers end mainly inland and out east as colder air filters in.
Low temps Mon night will range from the mid 30s in/around NYC
to the upper 20s/lower 30s elsewhere.
Dry/cooler wx expected on Tue, with highs from the upper 30s
well inland NW of NYC, to the lower/mid 40s elsewhere. The real
push of colder air should begin Tue night, with temps falling
into the teens inland and in the Pine Barrens region of Long
Island, and into the 20s for NYC and surrounding suburbs,
western Long Island, and coastal SW CT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Zonal flow aloft expected for Wednesday and Thursday, with weak
high pressure building from the west on Wednesday and weakening
on Thursday. Deterministic global models (GFS/ECMWF/CMC) now
all agree that both days remain dry, although their respective
ensemble means clip us with precip during this period. Will
remove all chances of precip, which is what NBM now features.
For Friday, the polar vortex drops SE through Quebec, helping
send An arctic cold front through the area during the daytime.
Models showing a lack of moisture with its passage, so will
continue with a dry forecast. Depending on the timing of the
passage, high temperatures could possibly occur early in the day
with afternoon temps falling through the 20s. Winds will
increase behind the front, and nighttime wind chills fall to
zero to 15 below zero. It remains cold on Saturday with high
pressure building in from the NW. Highs in the 20s, and this
may eventually need to be adjusted downward as time approaches.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Weak high pressure gives way to an approaching cold front
tonight into Monday.
VFR through early evening, then cigs lowering to MVFR. A few
showers will be possible late this afternoon into the evening,
but chances are not high enough to include in TAFs. The only
exception will be at KSWF where a TEMPO remains for a -SHRA has
Improvement back to VFR anticipated late tonight. Low confidence
of any MVFR cigs on Monday.
S-SW winds this afternoon will generally be between 8-14kt.
An occasional gusts between 15-20kt can not be ruled out, and
have left out of the TAF. LLWS also anticipated for mainly the
coastal terminals for a few hours this afternoon. SW winds
diminish tonight and remain fairly light through the remainder
of the TAF period.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Can not rule out a few occasional gusts this afternoon. Timing
of MVFR tonight, both onset and end, may be off by a couple of
hours, and potentially might not even occur.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.Monday...VFR. Chance of MVFR and showers mainly afternoon and
night.
.Tuesday through Friday...Mainly VFR. Friday afternoon, NW winds
increase to 15-20G30kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and gusts have been lower than forecast and in a
relatively light southerly flow, with a low level inversion
in place, gusts will remain minimal into tonight. Seas may still
build to 5 feet in the southerly flow, and will keep the SCA in
effect for the seas. Updated the Marine Weather W maintain .
Updated the marine weather message.
Conds begin to improve W of Fire Island Inlet by early this
evening as seas fall below 5 ft, and then gradually improve E
of there through the rest of tonight.
A general weak pressure gradient through the middle of next week
keeps all waters below SCA criteria through at least Wednesday.
For Thu, there is a chance that wind gusts on the ocean waters
could reach 25 kt.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through early next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for ANZ353.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/BG
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/BG