NWS Forecaster Discussion
BOX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA.
954
FXUS61 KBOX 140851
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
451 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Slight risk (level 2/5) remains this evening for the chance
of thunderstorms across western MA, including CT, with damaging
winds the primary risk. Otherwise, general trends remain
unchanged.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hot and dry conditions linger today.
- Showers and thunderstorms expected tonight, some of which
could have severe winds.
- High astronomical tides and up to one-foot of storm surge
could cause minor coastal flooding for the evening high tides
tonight Monday night.
- Seasonable temperatures and lower humidity return through the
first half of the week with a more active pattern returning
later in the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1... Hot and dry conditions linger today.
Temperatures remain in the low 90s (upper 80s along the
southern coast, Cape, and Islands) today as an unseasonably warm
airmass remains draped over New England. However, drier
conditions will persist with dewpoints down in the mid to upper
50s. High pressure will remain over the region for most of today
before the next system approaches later tonight.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Showers and thunderstorms expected tonight,
some of which could have severe winds.
A cold front pushing into Southern New England tonight will
bring an increase to shower and thunderstorm chances. Storms are
expected to move through between 6-11 PM this evening/tonight,
and for western MA (into CT), a Slight (level 2/5) risk for
severe weather remains in effect, with the latest suite of
guidance continuing to indicate the main risk of damaging winds
across the eastern slopes of the Berkshires down into Hartford.
Some guidance continues to indicate a split, where the most
severe storms will push north and south of southern New England,
but the latest trends have pushed that split further east,
leaving higher confidence in severe storms across the western
portion of the region. If this splitting feature occurs,
rainfall totals will be limited. This morning`s hi-res guidance
has trended PWATs near 1.8" further north into northern CT and
central MA, with pockets of 2.0"+ PWATs into RI, SE MA, and the
Cape and Islands. With this surge of moisture, expecting
rainfall totals ranging between 0.25-0.35" generally west of
ORH, with localized areas in NW MA seeing neat 0.50".
Considering the convective nature of these showers/storms,
locally higher rainfall totals are not out of the question.
These showers and storms should be clear of the region by ~7 AM
Monday morning.
KEY MESSAGE 3...High astronomical tides and up to one-foot of
storm surge could cause minor coastal flooding for the evening
high tides tonight Monday night.
Astronomical tides will be peaking today into Monday. The
evening high tide periods both tonight and Monday night pose the
greatest risk as these high tides are the highest. Latest storm
surge forecast data from P-ETSS and Stevens Institute indicate
about a half to up to one foot of storm surge, peaking with
tonight`s high tide cycle.
This is a low-ceiling coastal flooding scenario, with
splashover or at worst minor coastal flooding in the usual
vulnerable shoreline roads (including but not limited to Easy
Street in Nantucket and Morrissey Blvd in Boston). Given the
influx of visitors to Southern New England who may not be as
familiar with coastal flooding, we opted to continue Coastal
Flood Statements for much of the southern and eastern coast with
a Coastal Flood Advisory remaining in effect for Nantucket
through Monday night.
KEY MESSAGE 4...Seasonable temperatures and lower humidity
return through the first half of the week with a more active
pattern returning later in the week.
A cooler and much drier airmass pushes into Southern New
England Monday into Tuesday with latest guidance showing 850 mb
temps dropping to near +10C. Highs are likely to drop into the
low 80s, with dewpoints plummeting into the mid 40s to mid 50s,
bringing about much more comfortable "feels like" temperatures.
Temperatures will start to climb again heading into Wednesday,
but are still seasonable in the low to mid 80s with still
tolerable humidity levels. Long-range guidance continues to
disagree regarding precipitation chances Wednesday, with the GFS
(and ensembles) bringing precipitation chances back Wednesday
during the daytime and the ECMWF (and ensembles) holding off
until Thursday.
More active weather looks to develop around Thursday or
Thursday night, as a stronger disturbance aloft moves in and
sweeps a cold front through Southern New England. This could
bring a better shot at showers/storms, although it`s still too
early for specifics at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
06z TAF Update...
Sunday: High confidence.
VFR. SW winds increasing to 10-15 kt, with gusts to 25 kt.
Sunday Night: Moderate confidence.
Areas of MVFR to IFR possible with incoming SHRA and TSRA
associated with a passing cold front. Expecting bulk of the
storms to pass thorugh 00-06z west of ORH and roughly 06-10z
east of ORH. Winds prevailing out of the south from 10-15 kt
sustained, shifting NW in the wake of the front. Gusts to 25 kt
expected to continue through at least the first half of the
nighttime period.
Monday: High confidence.
IFR conditions improve to VFR or high-end MVFR by 15z as the
rain moves offshore. Generally NW winds decreasing to near 10
kts thorughout the day.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in trends. Moderate confidence
in timing. Expecting the rain to arrive by at least 07z, but
could arrive as early as 05z. Could see some rumbles of thunder,
but lower confidence in how far east lightning will travel.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in trends. Moderate confidence
in timing. Rain could arrive as early as 01z, but expecting
arrival no later than 03z. Uncertain as to how widespread
lightning will become, so included in PROB30.
Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...
Monday Night through Tuesday: VFR. Breezy.
Tuesday Night: VFR.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance SHRA,
slight chance TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Sunday...High confidence.
Seas generally 1-3 ft, except 3-4 ft across the far outer
waters through Sunday morning. Winds pick up from the S Sunday,
sustained between 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt possible.
Sunday Night...High confidence.
Seas increase to 4-5 ft across the outer waters Sunday night
into Monday, and winds pick up slightly, sustained between 15-20
kt and gusting to 25 kt. Winds also shift more W heading into
Monday morning. Some showers and thunderstorms are a possibility
during the overnight period over the waters, and localized
gusts over 25 kt cannot be ruled out.
Monday....High confidence.
Seas remain 4-5 ft across the southern waters, but drop to 2-4
ft across the northern waters. Likewise, wind gusts remain
around 20 kts across the southern waters and drop to near 10 kts
across the northern waters.
Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...
Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.
Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers,
slight chance of thunderstorms.
Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain
showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.
Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain
showers.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for MAZ024.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 2 AM EDT Monday for
ANZ230-236.
Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 8 AM EDT Monday for
ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...McMinn
AVIATION...McMinn
MARINE...McMinn